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Forecast
and Strategy.
"If you
want to catch fish you have to
go where the
fish are"
by Jack Cahn.
"If
you are going to catch fish, you have to go where the fish are."
How easy is that? Obvious not too easy, else there would not be stocked
trout parks. The same applies to trading profits: "The more volatility
a market has, the better suited it is for profitable trading. To assess
which markets are better day trading or swing trading (2 to 5 day holding
period) the trader needs a way calculate or forecast volatility. There
are many objective ways to do this: ADX, Option Premium Implied Volatility,
CBI's %C or to simply divide the market's price by its average daily range
or true range. In using this later "indicator" the lower this
number, the more important it is for a trader to hold positions for longer
periods of time in order to rise above the noise (defined as the spread
between the bid/ask, plus commissions). In the commodity markets, it would
be silly to try to day trade oats. This market is best suited toward establishing
a position either on a cyclical play or, perhaps, a technical breakout
from long base formation. However, in the stock index futures, for example,
there are both sufficient volatility and enough intra-day swings for a
trader to actually make a living day trading. However, as of the last
year or so there is an increasing amount of opportunity in day trading
some more tradition markets that have now gone electronic.
It is obvious that "big money"
is made on capturing the larger swings in any market. However, these types
of opportunities only come along a few times a year. This last sentence
is worth repeating as most traders think it is Christmas everyday and
it applies to both day trading and position trading: For position trading
"big money opportunities" only come along a few times a year,
a few being 6 or 7. Here is a brillant example of the tank job they did
on the Aussie dollar!

For day trading what we call the big money opportunities are "range
days". This is where the strategy has you long at the open of the
day which is near the low and the market closes on its highs where you
exit and the inverse is true for a short trade. In this regards, you may
only get 6 or 7 of them per month!
Hence, a good trader will make many smaller
trades according to his trade plan, his strategy or his system, constantly
probing the market until the technicals line up for a play where bigger
leverage can be used. Also, execution skills will ultimately play a large
role in a trader's overall profitability. Constant practice getting in
and out of the market, even if it means scratching many trades, is key.
Only with practice will a trader learn to get the feel of placing his
orders at just the right time. And, frankly, it is only after a trader
has made numerous trades that there is a lessening of the emotions and
anxieties that invariably go along with pulling the trigger. Perhaps this
is why most of the more profitable traders are active, diversified and
systematic. Some days traders can make more than 500 trades a day, and
quickly learn to ditch the losers for a small loss or scratch the trades
that do not show an immediate gain. The same efficacy applies to the 2
to 3 day swing traders as well. Bottom line, the best professionals are
exceptionally good at playing defense.
Have
you moved passed the kicking tires point and

want
to bewhere the rubber meet the road? Sign up to buy or lease!
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
TraderAssist®
Since 1989, Creative Breakthrough, Inc. CTA
Copyright 1989-2005
http://www.traderassist.com
Skype me today at traderassist
or call 800-618-3820 or (0) 617-5444-5762
U.S. Office: 7500 West Lake Mead Blvd. Suite 9-151, Las Vegas, NV 89128.
Phone: 800-618-3820, Cell 561-676-8167, Fax 509-356-1824
Australian Office: Box 174 Mooloolaba Beach, QLD. Australia 4557
Phone: 61-7-5444-5762, Cell: 61-4-2811-9889
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